Highest Expected Outcomes
| Selection | Match | Exp. |
|---|
Matchweek 1 fixtures
Week 1| # | Home | Away | Kickoff | Home ML | Away ML | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | NE | 2026-09-10 | — | — | — |
| 2 | LAR | SF | 2026-09-11 | — | — | — |
| 3 | CAR | CHI | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 4 | CIN | TB | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 5 | DET | NO | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 6 | HOU | BUF | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 7 | IND | BAL | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 8 | JAX | CLE | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 9 | LAC | ARI | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 10 | LV | MIA | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 11 | MIN | GB | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 12 | PHI | WSH | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 13 | PIT | ATL | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 14 | TEN | NYJ | 2026-09-13 | — | — | — |
| 15 | NYG | DAL | 2026-09-14 | — | — | — |
| 16 | KC | DEN | 2026-09-15 | — | — | — |
Fixture dates and kickoff times per the official 2026 NFL schedule. Moneyline prices are model-fair estimates from the Scoutics win model, not verified book quotes.
This week's model leans
| # | Match | Selection | Ref. odds | Fair prob | Model diff | Ref. EV |
|---|
Ranked from Scoutics model probabilities and refreshed every 6 hours. Reference prices, model difference and reference EV are not verified bookmaker market quotes.
How the engine works
1
Ingest live data
Results, form, injuries, and market odds pulled in continuously across all 32 NFL clubs.
2
Simulate the match
Each fixture runs thousands of times through a Monte Carlo model to build a full outcome distribution.
3
Surface the edge
Simulated probabilities are compared against market odds and ranked by expected value.
Standings
| Team | Pld | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | — | — |
| 2 | Miami Dolphins | — | — |
| 3 | New England Patriots | — | — |
| 4 | New York Jets | — | — |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | — | — |
| 6 | Cincinnati Bengals | — | — |
| 7 | Cleveland Browns | — | — |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | — | — |
| 9 | Houston Texans | — | — |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | — | — |
| 11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | — | — |
| 12 | Tennessee Titans | — | — |
| 13 | Denver Broncos | — | — |
| 14 | Kansas City Chiefs | — | — |
| 15 | Las Vegas Raiders | — | — |
| 16 | Los Angeles Chargers | — | — |
| 17 | Dallas Cowboys | — | — |
| 18 | New York Giants | — | — |
| 19 | Philadelphia Eagles | — | — |
| 20 | Washington Commanders | — | — |
| 21 | Chicago Bears | — | — |
| 22 | Detroit Lions | — | — |
| 23 | Green Bay Packers | — | — |
| 24 | Minnesota Vikings | — | — |
| 25 | Atlanta Falcons | — | — |
| 26 | Carolina Panthers | — | — |
| 27 | New Orleans Saints | — | — |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | — |
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | — | — |
| 30 | Los Angeles Rams | — | — |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | — | — |
| 32 | Seattle Seahawks | — | — |
Preseason · all clubs start level on Sep 10
MVP watch
1
Patrick MahomesKansas City Chiefs
—
2
Josh AllenBuffalo Bills
—
3
Lamar JacksonBaltimore Ravens
—
4
Joe BurrowCincinnati Bengals
—
Preseason · live sportsbook feed pending
Model snapshot
| Markets covered | 12 |
| Season | 2026 |