Market changes
Checking market snapshotsWe’ll show changes only when they can be compared.
Where the edge is
Our simulation model next to the market for the games coming up. Start here, then dig into the table below.
Checking today’s model and market numbers…
Upcoming games
Upcoming| # | Home | Away | Kickoff · UTC | Home ML | Away ML | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Oct 09, 00:15 UTC | -455 | +340 | Reference snapshot |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia Eagles | Oct 11, 13:30 UTC | -370 | +285 | Reference snapshot |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | Oct 11, 17:00 UTC | +125 | -147 | Reference snapshot |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | Oct 11, 17:00 UTC | +280 | -345 | Reference snapshot |
| 5 | Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals | Oct 11, 17:00 UTC | +300 | -385 | Reference snapshot |
| 6 | New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders | Oct 11, 17:00 UTC | -196 | +163 | Reference snapshot |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings | Oct 11, 17:00 UTC | +110 | -130 | Reference snapshot |
| 8 | New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | Oct 11, 17:00 UTC | -130 | +110 | Reference snapshot |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts | Oct 11, 17:00 UTC | -145 | +120 | Reference snapshot |
| 10 | Washington Commanders | New York Giants | Oct 11, 17:00 UTC | -185 | +155 | Reference snapshot |
| 11 | Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos | Oct 11, 20:05 UTC | +154 | -179 | Reference snapshot |
| 12 | Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions | Oct 11, 20:25 UTC | +198 | -238 | Reference snapshot |
| 13 | Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | Oct 11, 20:25 UTC | -154 | +132 | Reference snapshot |
| 14 | Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens | Oct 12, 00:20 UTC | -175 | +150 | Reference snapshot |
| 15 | Los Angeles Rams | Buffalo Bills | Oct 13, 00:15 UTC | -154 | +130 | Reference snapshot |
| 16 | Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks | Oct 16, 00:15 UTC | +112 | -132 | Reference snapshot |
Published schedule · fresh snapshot · fetched 2026-10-06T20:56:25.116634Z. Public sportsbook-style prices are supplied through The Odds API and kept separate from model estimates. “No quote” is missing data, never a zero or a prediction.
Model + market comparison
| Match | Selection | Model % | Fair odds | Market % | Gap (pp) |
|---|
Parlay slip 0 legs
Tap + Slip on any row to add it. One slip works across EPL, NBA, NFL and NHL and stays on this device.
Model estimates, no-vig market probabilities and timestamped decimal references are separate. A probability gap is not EV or a betting recommendation. Missing and incompatible comparisons stay blank.
Model evidence
Model validation evidence becomes available with model rows. This is not a profit or ROI backtest.
How the engine works Data sources, freshness and coverage
How the engine works
1
Ingest live data
Current-season results and published rosters are collected from public sources. Coverage and timestamps are shown.
2
Simulate the game
Open the simulator separately to explore the selected matchup. Rankings do not wait for a simulation to finish.
3
Understand the difference
Compare independent model estimates with timestamped market references when settlement rules match. A probability gap is not a guaranteed advantage.
League record ranking
| Team | GP | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers 4-0 | 4 | 4 |
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs 4-0 | 4 | 4 |
| 1 | Minnesota Vikings 4-0 | 4 | 4 |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears 3-1 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks 3-1 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Las Vegas Raiders 3-1 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Buffalo Bills 3-1 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens 3-1 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | New York Giants 3-1 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Cleveland Browns 3-1 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Atlanta Falcons 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Rams 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Indianapolis Colts 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Detroit Lions 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | New England Patriots 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers 2-2 | 4 | 2 |
| 24 | New York Jets 1-3 | 4 | 1 |
| 24 | New Orleans Saints 1-3 | 4 | 1 |
| 24 | Arizona Cardinals 1-3 | 4 | 1 |
| 24 | Washington Commanders 1-3 | 4 | 1 |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-4 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 | Houston Texans 0-4 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 | Tennessee Titans 0-4 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 | Los Angeles Chargers 0-4 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 | Miami Dolphins 0-4 | 4 | 0 |
League-wide record ranking; equal won-lost-tied percentages share rank. Official playoff seeds use division, conference and head-to-head tiebreakers. · fresh · fetched 2026-10-06T20:56:24.968252+00:00
Passing leaders
1
Bryce YoungCarolina Panthers
1268yards
2
Jared GoffDetroit Lions
1214yards
3
Tyler ShoughNew Orleans Saints
1203yards
4
Matthew StaffordLos Angeles Rams
1189yards
5
Joe BurrowCincinnati Bengals
1171yards
Current regular-season statistics from ESPN; tied values share rank.