Model probabilities · Market probabilities · EV · Player threat

BettingLab

Compare p_model to p_market (Polymarket / Odds API / manual), see EV from implied decimals, and scan FPL-based threat proxies for each squad through the OpenArena pricing lens.

Engine + FPL snapshot

Fixture & market input

Upcoming fixture

Primary market source

Top players per side

1X2 model

Hierarchical GAT LDA baseline Team-match MLP

With Hierarchical GAT checked (default), requests use that head first. Uncheck all for auto pipeline. Ensemble = equal-weight mean of checked models that load.

Market overrides (prob.)

Home

Draw

Away

Kelly preview

BR ($)

f Kelly

Edge min

American (from market q)

Home

—

Draw

—

Away

—

Decimal (fair from q)

Home

—

Draw

—

Away

—

p model —

—

p model —

Odds / probabilities / value

Outcome	Amer	Decimal	Book q	Model p	EV ($1)	Edge
Home (H)	—	—	—	—	—	—
Draw (D)	—	—	—	—	—	—
Away (A)	—	—	—	—	—	—

Sources: —

Other models: —

Model vs market probability

Home M

0.000

Home K

0.000

Draw M

0.000

Draw K

0.000

Away M

0.000

Away K

0.000

Edge (signed: model − market)

Home

0.000

Draw

0.000

Away

0.000

Top players (threat proxy)

—

Home

Away