Market changes
Checking market snapshotsWe’ll show changes only when they can be compared.
Where the edge is
Our simulation model next to the market for the games coming up. Start here, then dig into the table below.
Checking today’s model and market numbers…
Upcoming fixtures
Upcoming| # | Home | Away | Kickoff · UTC | Home ML | Draw | Away ML | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | Leeds | Oct 10, 11:30 UTCGW 6 | -278 | +380 | +700 | Reference snapshot |
| 2 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Oct 10, 14:00 UTCGW 6 | +160 | +250 | +150 | Reference snapshot |
| 3 | Chelsea | Bournemouth | Oct 10, 14:00 UTCGW 6 | -143 | +310 | +333 | Reference snapshot |
| 4 | Ipswich Town | Fulham | Oct 10, 14:00 UTCGW 6 | +175 | +250 | +140 | Reference snapshot |
| 5 | Sunderland | Brighton | Oct 10, 14:00 UTCGW 6 | +188 | +240 | +130 | Reference snapshot |
| 6 | Man Utd | Spurs | Oct 10, 16:30 UTCGW 6 | -143 | +310 | +333 | Reference snapshot |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | Nott'm Forest | Oct 11, 13:00 UTCGW 6 | +162 | +230 | +165 | Reference snapshot |
| 8 | Hull City | Everton | Oct 11, 13:00 UTCGW 6 | +260 | +230 | +105 | Reference snapshot |
| 9 | Liverpool | Man City | Oct 11, 15:30 UTCGW 6 | +155 | +265 | +150 | Reference snapshot |
| 10 | Coventry City | Newcastle | Oct 12, 19:00 UTCGW 6 | +225 | +260 | +110 | Reference snapshot |
| 11 | Everton | Chelsea | Oct 17, 11:30 UTCGW 7 | +180 | +260 | +125 | Reference snapshot |
| 12 | Brentford | Liverpool | Oct 17, 14:00 UTCGW 7 | +170 | +270 | +135 | Reference snapshot |
| 13 | Fulham | Hull City | Oct 17, 14:00 UTCGW 7 | -149 | +290 | +375 | Reference snapshot |
| 14 | Man City | Ipswich Town | Oct 17, 14:00 UTCGW 7 | -455 | +538 | +1075 | Reference snapshot |
| 15 | Newcastle | Aston Villa | Oct 17, 16:30 UTCGW 7 | +108 | +275 | +215 | Reference snapshot |
| 16 | Bournemouth | Sunderland | Oct 18, 13:00 UTCGW 7 | -102 | +255 | +260 | Reference snapshot |
Published schedule · fresh snapshot · fetched 2026-10-06T20:54:24.661882Z. Public sportsbook-style prices are supplied through The Odds API and kept separate from model estimates. “No quote” is missing data, never a zero or a prediction.
Model + market comparison
| Match | Selection | Model % | Fair odds | Market % | Gap (pp) |
|---|
Parlay slip 0 legs
Tap + Slip on any row to add it. One slip works across EPL, NBA, NFL and NHL and stays on this device.
Model estimates, no-vig market probabilities and timestamped decimal references are separate. A probability gap is not EV or a betting recommendation. Missing and incompatible comparisons stay blank.
Model evidence
Model validation evidence becomes available with model rows. This is not a profit or ROI backtest.
How the engine works Data sources, freshness and coverage
How the engine works
1
Ingest live data
Current-season results and published rosters are collected from public sources. Coverage and timestamps are shown.
2
Simulate the match
Open the simulator separately to explore the selected matchup. Rankings do not wait for a simulation to finish.
3
Understand the difference
Compare independent model estimates with timestamped market references when settlement rules match. A probability gap is not a guaranteed advantage.
Standings
| Team | GP | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City 5-0-0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal 4-0-1 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1-1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford 2-3-0 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United 2-3-0 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool 2-3-0 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton 2-3-0 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull CityUP 2-2-1 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle United 2-2-1 | 5 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea 2-1-2 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich TownUP 2-0-3 | 5 | 6 |
| 12 | Manchester United 1-2-2 | 5 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest 1-2-2 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland 1-1-3 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace 1-1-3 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa 1-1-3 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | AFC Bournemouth 0-3-2 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry CityUP 1-0-4 | 5 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham 0-2-3 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham Hotspur 0-2-3 | 5 | 2 |
Ordered by points, goal difference and goals scored; the live provider order resolves deeper league ties when available. · fresh · fetched 2026-10-06T20:52:14.422438+00:00
Scoring leaders
1
HaalandMan City
5goals0 assists
2
IsakLiverpool
4goals0 assists
3
GroßBrighton
3goals4 assists
3
João PedroChelsea
3goals3 assists
3
CherkiMan City
3goals2 assists
3
SchadeBrentford
3goals2 assists
3
RogersChelsea
3goals1 assists
3
B.FernandesMan Utd
3goals1 assists
3
BrobbeySunderland
3goals0 assists
3
SakaArsenal
3goals0 assists
Official FPL live data · season goals · current Premier League player pool only. Players tied on goals share rank. Assists use FPL scoring definitions, which can differ from league award statistics.