90′ match · 5767 sim frames @ 24 FPS · 14 styles in STYLE_PROFILES · 67 TEAM_STYLE_MAP entries
ARS · Arteta positionalCOV · Mid-block presssnapshot_state
Season kicks off Aug 21, 2026
Premier League 2026/27, simulated before a ball is kicked.
Scoutics runs Monte Carlo simulations against live market odds for every Premier League fixture, surfacing expected value across moneyline, goals, corners, and player markets — updated weekly all season.
Fixture dates and kickoff times per the official 2026/27 Premier League schedule. Moneyline prices are model-fair estimates from the Scoutics win model, not verified book quotes.
This week's model leans
Week 1 · Premier League
#
Match
Selection
Ref. odds
Fair prob
Model diff
Ref. EV
Ranked from Scoutics model probabilities and refreshed every 6 hours. Reference prices, model difference and reference EV are not verified bookmaker market quotes.
How the engine works
1
Ingest live data
Results, form, injuries, and market odds pulled in continuously across all 20 Premier League clubs.
2
Simulate the match
Each fixture runs thousands of times through a Monte Carlo model to build a full outcome distribution.
3
Surface the edge
Simulated probabilities are compared against market odds and ranked by expected value.
Standings
Team
Pld
Pts
1
Arsenal
—
—
2
Ipswich Town
UP
—
—
3
Hull City
UP
—
—
4
Manchester United
—
—
5
Crystal Palace
—
—
6
Aston Villa
—
—
7
Manchester City
—
—
8
Liverpool
—
—
9
Coventry City
UP
—
—
10
Sunderland
UP
—
—
11
Brentford
—
—
12
Chelsea
—
—
13
Nottingham Forest
—
—
14
Leeds
—
—
15
Brighton & Hove Albion
—
—
16
Newcastle United
—
—
17
Fulham
—
—
18
Tottenham
—
—
19
Everton
—
—
20
Bournemouth
—
—
21
Leeds United
UP
—
—
22
Tottenham Hotspur
—
—
Preseason · all clubs start level on Aug 21
Golden Boot watch
1
Erling HaalandManchester City
—
2
Mohamed SalahLiverpool
—
3
Bukayo SakaArsenal
—
4
Cole PalmerChelsea
—
Preseason · live sportsbook feed pending
Model snapshot
Markets covered
12
Season
2026/27
Simulation game
Run your own simulation
Pick a fixture and run 100 fast event-based simulations. Each run uses player profiles, availability, shooting accuracy, fatigue, tactical style and match-rule checks; no video frames are rendered.
— : —
HomeDrawAway
100-run player-profile batches are available with Scoutics Pro or Insider.
0%0 / 100
Fast simulation betting stats (100 runs)
Outcome distribution
Most likely scorelines
Market
Selection
Hit rate
Fair odds
Hit-rate colour: green ≥ 60%, amber 40–59%, red < 40%.
Seeded engine replay — not a Monte Carlo score interval · The trained outcome artifact was unavailable at page load, so this forecast uses a deterministic baseline rather than triggering model training.
Outcome model: epl_prior_fallback
Current roster inputs and team-strength features
Model artifact unavailable — baseline projection only
Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Market edge is shown only with a verified external market source.
Arsenal vs Coventry City
Score
0 - 0
Probabilities
0.562 / 0.387 / 0.051
xG
1.07 - 1.15
Loaded player data overview
Source: repo.fpl(latest season snapshot)
Latest season in CSV: 2025
Snapshot rule: latest available row per player for each selected team
ARS
Players shown
11
Avg price
6.9
Avg xG
2.78
Avg xA
1.92
Avg points
102.3
Matchup totals
Players shown
22
Avg price
5.75
Avg xG
1.39
Avg xA
0.96
Avg points
51.15
COV
Players shown
11
Avg price
4.6
Avg xG
0.00
Avg xA
0.00
Avg points
0.0
LINEUPS
ARS
4-3-3
Arteta positional
COV
4-2-3-1
Mid-block press
1David Raya Martín
2Jurriën Timber
3Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães
4William Saliba
5Piero Hincapié
6Martín Zubimendi Ibáñez
7Declan Rice
8Bukayo Saka
9Viktor Gyökeres
10Gabriel Fernando de Jesus
11Kai Havertz
1Oliver Dovin
2van Ewijk
3Miguel Brau
4Luke Woolfenden
5Liam Kitching
6Victor Torp
7Tatsuhiro Sakamoto
8Borges Rodrigues
9Matt Grimes
10Loum Tchaouna
11Jahnoah Markelo
MATCH STATS
0%0%
POSSESSION %
0SHOTS0
0ON TARGET0
1.07xG1.15
0PASSES0
2.78AVG xG0.00
1.92AVG xA0.00
102.3AVG PTS0.0
£6.9mAVG PRICE£4.6m
Live simulation stats
Updates live as the match evolves.
Attack / penetration
Home AttackStyle
—
Away AttackStyle
—
Home Penetration
—
Away Penetration
—
Home Defense Style
—
Defense / build / transition
Away Defense Style
—
Home Build Style
—
Away Build Style
—
Home Transition
—
Away Transition
—
Loaded player data overview
Source: repo.fpl(latest season snapshot)
Latest season in CSV: 2025
Snapshot rule: latest available row per player for each selected team
ARS
Players shown
11
Avg price
6.9
Avg xG
2.78
Avg xA
1.92
Avg points
102.3
Live match stats
Stat
ARS
COV
Possession
0%
0%
Shots
0 (0)
0 (0)
Passes
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Fouls
0
0
Goals
0
0
COV
Players shown
11
Avg price
4.6
Avg xG
0.00
Avg xA
0.00
Avg points
0.0
Home player phases
Color-coded live phase tracking.
Away player phases
Color-coded live phase tracking.
GAME ODDS
Game odds — model vs market
Implied decimal odds from our simulation model. Lower odds = more likely.
Model estimate. Fair or projected odds are analytical outputs, not prices Scoutics offers for a wager.
Third-party market prices, when shown, may be delayed and should be verified with their stated source.
See disclaimer.
Outcome
Model %
Model odds
ARS win
69%
1.45
Draw
28%
3.52
COV win
3%
39.49
Live market line unavailable for this fixture — showing model odds only.
FORM & HEAD-TO-HEAD
Recent form & head-to-head
Historically relevant context for this fixture — recent results and previous meetings.
ARS — last 5
WACRY2-1
WHBUR1-0
WAWHU1-0
WHFUL3-0
WHNEW1-0
COV — last 0
No historical matches found.
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